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《大行報告》匯豐研究降復星醫藥(02196.HK)評級至「持有」 下調多家醫藥股目標價
匯豐環球研究發表報告指出,中國醫藥股A股年初至今累跌11%,H股亦回跌28%,相對於同期恆指累跌13%,滬深300指數累跌5%。該行指低估了內地醫藥反貪腐調查對製藥公司銷售的負面影響,儘管相關影響有所緩解,但該行對醫藥股下半年業務維持保守態度,並將其所覆蓋的醫藥股今年收入預測下調2%至12%,盈利預測下調1%至31%。 然而,該行認為9月份市場情緒逐漸好轉,主要由於國家衛健委要求反貪腐調查不得影響醫院的正常運作;學術及行銷活動正逐步恢復。該行認為醫藥股目前估值已反映最壞情況,預期醫藥股盈利能力將由2023年的低至中位單位數,逐步恢復至2024年的超過10%,另維持長期前景正面看法。 在醫藥股中,該行偏好於擁有豐富創新管線、可持續增長可見性及股息率吸引的股份,首選恆瑞醫藥(600276.SH)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)及康哲藥業(00867.HK),均予以「買入」評級。當中,看好翰森製藥上半年創新藥佔比約62%,為該行所覆蓋的醫藥股中最高;而康哲藥業股息率高,2024至2025年的增長前景具可見性。 此外,該行將復星醫藥(02196.HK)評級由「買入」降至「持有」,目標價由40元削至20元,並下調對其今年收入及盈利預測,因為2022年基數較高,與疫情相關收入較大,以及如Gland Pharma的復甦及生物仿製藥的帶量採購(VBP)帶來的持續不確定性。該行同時下調多家醫藥股目標價(見另表)。
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