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《大行報告》大摩:扶持政策密集出台 料第四季內房銷售持續改善
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,其所追蹤的30間主要開發商於9月的合約銷售按月增5%,按年跌幅收窄至41%。國企開發商的表現持續優於民營開發商,每月回升幅度更大,按年跌幅亦較小。其中,中國海外(00688.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)和萬科(02202.HK)按月增49%、137%和42%。相較之下,龍光集團(03380.HK)、正榮地產(06158.HK)和時代中國(01233.HK)則按月下跌超過20%。 該行表示,隨著8月及9月不少一、二線城市的扶持政策密集出台,買樓信心將會逐步改善。該行繼續認為,這應該會支持未來數個月房地產銷售持續改善,而反彈的勢頭將持續到明年,而關鍵因素則在於宏觀經濟的復甦程度。該行認為,國企和優質民企,如華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外、招商蛇口(001979.SZ)、保利(600048.SS)和龍湖(00960.HK)應該會因在一線城市擁有豐富優質的土地儲備而成為關鍵的受惠者。
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