《大行報告》瑞銀料施政報告房策有四大主題 包括放寬非本地居民首置印花稅
瑞銀發表報告,預期本月25日公布的施政報告,在樓市政策方面,將會有四大主題,住宅樓市政策可能放寬,例如放寬非本地居民首置印花稅;推出更多吸引人才的政策;重推啟德單軌鐵路;因應北部都會區發展而加快農地改劃。
目前非本地居民購買住宅物業,需繳交合共30%印花稅,若七年內取得香港永久居民身份可獲退回扣稅,瑞銀估計政府可能將措施放寬,非本地居民先不需繳交較高稅率、若七年內將物業轉手才補回稅款。若果執行有關措施,估計對樓市是正面催化劑,因為有大約35萬非本地居民正在等候永久居民身份,相比2021年新樓及二手樓成交分別為1.72萬及5.2萬戶,屬於有規模的數字。
不過瑞銀指,參考過去放寬按揭成數對樓市影響,相信放寬住宅印花稅對市場成交的刺激作用,只會維持4至16個星期,在高息環境下,非本地居民需求釋放後,成交量會再下跌,樓市至明年中前不會有明顯復甦。
在該行覆蓋的地產股中,恆地(00012.HK)對於任何潛在放寬受惠最大,因為恆地本地住宅佔總資產價值最大、擁有最多農地儲備、以及在啟德持有具規模用地。
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