惠譽:內地天然氣公用事業公司EBITDA有望提升
惠譽評級表示,得益於單位毛差回升、銷氣量增長以及增值服務和綜合能源業務貢獻度上升,中國天然氣公用事業公司的EBITDA有望提升,且惠譽授評發行人具備維持其評級和獨立信用狀況的充裕空間。
惠譽認為,中國天然氣公用事業公司的單位毛差已在2022年末觸底,2024年將繼續改善。多地宣布上調居民用氣價格(疫情期間曾暫停上調),疊加自動傳導機制的引入,應能為單位毛差提供支持。此外,該些變化也可能縮短成本傳導時滯。
由於2022年國家石油公司延遲轉嫁採購成本上漲,惠譽預計中國天然氣公用事業公司採購的管道天然氣合同內氣源(佔其採購量的大部分)的成本仍將高企。不過,進口天然氣價格下行料將持續至2026年,有望緩解不受管制的國內液化天然氣的價格,進而降低天然氣供應合同外氣源的平均成本。對進口天然氣直接敞口較大的公用事業公司將獲得最大的成本效益。
惠譽預計,除新奧能源(02688.HK)和北京市燃氣集團外,今年中國天然氣公用事業公司的天然氣零售銷量平均增速有望自去年的低至中個位數提高至高個位數水平。這主要得益於疫情後天然氣需求回暖以及新用戶和收購項目的貢獻。今年新奧能源的銷氣量或將下滑約5%,因其限制對低利潤率燃氣發電廠的天然氣供應量。濱海投資(02886.HK)自8月起向天津市東麗區軍糧城燃氣發電廠供氣,或助力該公司取得同業中最高銷氣量增速。
天然氣公用事業公司的EBITDA增長可能由非燃氣業務帶動。例如,今年上半年新奧能源綜合能源和增值服務板塊的貢獻度為26%,而華潤燃氣(01193.HK)正利用其5,400萬居民用戶推廣配套產品以及燃氣相關綜合服務。惠譽預計,2023至2026年間華潤燃氣增值服務板塊的EBITDA年均覆合增長率有望達20%,儘管該板塊的貢獻度仍然較低。
不過惠譽料由於液化天然氣接收站投資導致資本支出進入高峰期,今年昆侖能源(00135.HK)和北京燃氣的自由現金流或暫時下降。
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