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瑞銀鞏旻料中國汽車市場持續整合 至2030年規模車企達10至12間
歐盟執行委員會早前宣布,計劃對從中國進口的電動車補貼情況展開調查。被問到會否加快中國汽車市場整合步伐,瑞銀中國汽車行業研究主管鞏旻表示,中國電動汽車行業一直處於整合階段,但並不預期短期內中國主要龍頭車企數量會降至數間,以日本為例,當地汽車市場相對較小,但發展至今主要車企仍有6至7間,因此預測至2030年中國依然會有10至12間汽車企業以不同方式地具規模運作。 瑞銀早前拆解比亞迪(01211.HK)「海豹」車型進行研究,發現近80%零部件是由比亞迪自家生產。鞏旻指,估計即使比亞迪等中國車企改為於歐洲生產整車,相較歐洲車企的同類車型仍然有約25%成本優勢,指出除製造方面具成本效益,在技術上亦有一定優勢,而與 特斯拉(TSLA.US)相比,電動車技術差距正在收窄。 該行預測,至2030年中國整車廠於全球市佔率將從去年度的17%提升至33%,接近翻倍;而傳統車企的全球市佔率則將從81%下跌至58%,當中燃油汽車市場結構性萎縮,受衝擊較大。
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