《大行報告》中金:降準是利率補降體現 債牛未盡
人民銀行降低存款準備金率0.25個百分點。中金發表研究報告指,近期資金面收緊的核心因素仍在於供需層面,預計地方債發行量全月淨增或與8月持平,其次,9月15日將有4,000億元人民幣MLF到期。央行希望通過降準釋放流動性的必要程度較高。
該行表示,近期債券市場作出調整,認為其後原因可能主要在於月初各大城市城市認房不認貸的優化政策進一步落地,債市投資者擔憂地產政策超預期寬鬆可能帶動經濟基本面明顯修復、近期工業品價格整體持續反彈,地產與基建均有改善,經濟基本面或有所回暖、8月以來人民幣表現偏弱,央行通過抬升離岸央票發行規模、下調金融機構外匯存款準備金率等方式穩匯率。
該行認為,這種補庫行為對短期經濟有一定支撐作用,但在終端需求仍偏弱的情況下或難有更明顯上升。另外,此次降準進一步表明當前在經濟基本面內生修復動能仍未見明顯回暖。貨幣政策整體基調仍是穩健偏鬆,有助於緩解市場對資金面趨緊的擔憂情緒,帶動債券收益率重回下行通道。
此次降準是通過釋放流動性引導貨幣市場利率重新回落。該行相信,利率補降邏輯依然成立,不排除貨幣政策在第四季可進一步放寬,包括引導存款利率、基準利率進一步補降,對應債市利率下行趨勢仍未結束,10年期國債收益率有望降至2.4%至2.5%。
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