大行評級|富瑞:利率下降是國企壽險面臨的主要挑戰 首選中國平安和人保
富瑞發表研究報吿指,內險股公佈中期業績後,雖然資產損益表疲弱,但由於宏觀情緒改善和新業務價值表現較預期好,行業仍反彈2至8%。該行認為,利率下降是國企壽險面臨的主要挑戰,首選中國平安和人保。該行考慮到綜合盈利趨勢和償付能力受壓,認為大部分中國壽險公司今年的派息或僅持平至增長單位數,因此中國人壽、新華保險和中國太平的派息率或出現雙位數下降。該行相信,在利率下降的環境下,中國平安的融資狀況和改革將成為一個關鍵的差異化因素。該行料平安壽險的綜合股本回報率將超過20%,而國企壽險則為8至12%。由於股息下行,將國壽評級由“買入”下調至“持有”,目標價由16港元降至12港元;財險及人保評級則由“持有”上調至“買入”,財險目標價由9港元升至11港元,人保目標價亦由2.9港元升至3.2港元。
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