豬肉股走高，畜牧ETF、農業50ETF上升
格隆匯9月12日丨豬肉股震盪走高，巨星農牧升超4.5%，華統股份、新五豐、温氏股份、海大集團等跟升。
招商基金畜牧養殖ETF、國泰基金養殖ETF、鵬華基金畜牧ETF、銀華基金農業50ETF、華夏基金農業50ETF、富國基金農業ETF、 易方達基金現代農業ETF、平安基金養殖ETF上升。
9月9日，國家統計局發佈2023年8月份全國CPI（居民消費價格指數）數據。從環比看，CPI上升0.3%，升幅比上月擴大0.1個百分點。食品中，受部分地區極端天氣影響調運、養殖户壓欄惜售及中央儲備豬肉收儲支撐市場信心等因素影響，豬肉價格由上月持平轉為上升11.4%。從同比看，CPI由上月下降0.3%轉為上升0.1%。食品中，豬肉價格下降17.9%，降幅比上月收窄8.1個百分點。
從近期各上市豬企陸續公佈的銷售簡報來看，牧原股份、温氏股份、天邦食品、新希望等豬企的銷售收入、銷售均價均實現了環比上升。
牧原股份8月實現生豬銷售567.2萬頭，銷售收入108.07億元；商品豬銷售均價16.35元/公斤，環比上升18.39%。温氏股份8月銷售肉豬214.43萬頭（含毛豬和鮮品），銷售收入41.21億元，環比增16.61%；毛豬銷售均價16.84元/公斤，環比上升18.51%。天邦食品8月銷售商品豬53.33萬頭，銷售收入8.54億元，環比增長23.18%；商品豬銷售均價17.15元/公斤，環比上升15.42%。新希望8月銷售生豬131.48萬頭，銷售生豬收入為22.57億元，環比增9.62%；商品豬銷售均價16.63元/公斤，環比增18.03%。
招商證券研報表示，仔豬價格繼續下行，預計去產能或仍為主旋律。從二元母豬價格、仔豬價格以及行業出欄均重上看，行業對後市豬價或仍較為謹慎、補欄積極性偏弱，豬價季節性反彈或不改產能去化趨勢，強化豬價反轉預期。此外，板塊估值已提前調整至歷史低位，配置價值凸顯。標的選擇方面，重點推薦成本優勢明顯、業績兑現能力較強的公司。
國信證券研報指出，生豬行業資金緊張，週期底部信號明顯，考慮到今年下半年的豬價預期依然偏保守，母豬產能有望加速去化，或進一步催化板塊，板塊估值處於歷史底部，後續伴隨產能去化預期好轉，有望開啟估值修復。
中郵證券預計下半年豬價温和回升，行業仍處於下行週期。天氣轉涼，且在開學、中秋國慶等備貨需求支撐下，生豬需求有所回暖。但供給依然過剩，一是自去年12月至今，能繁母豬存欄僅去化3%左右，且生產效率明顯提升，當前行業產能中樞高於去年同期；二是7月下旬的豬價快升推動了行業的惜售壓欄、二育行為，而業內普遍看好十一行情，或造成集中出欄。供需博弈僵持，短期內豬價不具備大幅上升基礎，預計下半年僅季節性回暖，升幅有限。從投資上看，豬價磨底階段，當前階段需首選成本優勢突出的標的，再兼顧成長性，龍頭企業成本優勢相對明顯，且出欄確定性更強。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
