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《大行報告》星展上調攜程-S(09961.HK)目標價至500元 評級「買入」
星展發表報告指出,攜程-S(09961.HK)是內地最大線上旅行平台,公司受惠於內地旅行開支增加、遊客對自由行旅行偏好的結構性轉變,以及海外業務擴張。 該行認為,受惠來自疫情期間封鎖城市的業務復甦,預期攜程由2022至2025年三年的收入年均複合增長率達45%,而2025至2032年期間的年增長率達中雙位數。長期的增長動力包括中低線城市和Z世代的旅行開支增加,遊客偏好轉向自由行,以及旅行體驗提升(如非洲野生動物園之旅、潛水及滑雪等)。 此外,受累於疫情,攜程的國際旅遊業務(包括出境遊)僅佔2021年收入的11%,該行預期該業務於2022至2025年期間的年均複合增長率為76%,使該業務2025年收入佔比擴至37%,超過2019年36%的水平。相信公司將持續獲得市場份額,在餐飲和水療服務等其他旅遊產品的交叉銷售幫助下,不但為公司帶來更多佣金,還會帶來品牌廣告收入。 星展指出,隨著休閒旅遊續增,出境旅遊持續復甦,估計下半年攜程收入增長1.06倍。同時,該行對公司2023至2025年經調整盈測上調22%、12%及8%,以反映更好的營運槓桿。另維持對攜程H股「買入」評級,目標價由445元上調至500元。
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