《大行報告》海通國際下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至41.5元 中期業績超預期
海通國際發表報告指,蒙牛(02319.HK)上半年業績超過市場預期,主因毛利率升幅好於預期,液態奶產品結構超預期。目標價由45元降至41.5元,維持「優於大市」評級。
海通國際預計,受惠於需求復甦,蒙牛下半年收入增速將比上半年提振。公司維持經營利潤率今年50個基點擴張目標。雖然經營利潤率去年下半年基數較高,按年或有所下滑,但綜合全年仍將達成利潤目標。該行看好公司毛利率長期上行。同時,雖然今年公司銷售費用率有所上行,但認為公司銷售費用率長期仍在下行通道,乳業競爭拐點已現,今年乳製品終端價格穩定,廠商競爭理性。
考慮行業短期承壓,下調盈利預測,該行預計蒙牛今年至後年營業收入分別為1,009.8/1,105.7/1,209.7億元,前值預測為1,056.9/1,163.4/1,279.3億元,按年增長9.1%/9.5%/9.4%;純利分別為60.6/68.8/80.4億元,前值預測為63.6/75.3/88.4億元,按年增長14.3%/13.5%/16.9%。
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