一文綜合券商於中石油(00857.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
中石油(00857.HK)昨日(30日)收市後公布今年中期業績,今早先升後回,半日跌0.7%收5.58元。摩根士丹利表示,中石油第二季淨利潤416億元人民幣,較該行預期高16%,主要受勘探及生產盈利在油氣價格下滑下仍按季升9%推動。公司下游業務亦勝市場預期。該行按半年自由現金流計算,中石油上半年自由現金流比率為13.2%,高於中石化(00386.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)各8.5%及6.8%。該行又指,中石油宣布中期息每股21分人民幣,派息比率為45%,意味年化股息率約8%,符合該行預期。該行維持中石油「增持」評級及目標價6.5元。
中石油公布今年上半年營業額按年跌8.3%至14,798.71億元人民幣。純利按年升4.5%至852.72億元人民幣,高於本網綜合3間券商的預測上限的842.58億元人民幣,每股盈利47分人民幣。中期息21分人民幣,去年同期派20.258分人民幣。半年原油產量按年升5%至4.74億桶,可銷售天然氣產量按年升6.7%至2.52萬億立方英尺,油氣當量產量按年升5.8%至8.94億桶,原油加工量按年升12.6%至6.73億桶。
期內平均實現原油價格每桶74.15美元,比上年同期的94.65美元下降21.7%。單位油氣操作成本每桶10.82美元,比上年同期的11.61美元下降6.8%。半年資本性支出按年跌7.8%至851.37億元人民幣,2023年全年資本性支出預計為2,435億元人民幣。
【次季績略優 上游業務佳】
摩根大通指,相信部分投資者對中石油業績感到驚喜,基於勘探及生產表現在布蘭特期油按季跌每桶4美元下仍錄得按季增長,可能受益於成本改善及人民幣貶值,以及煉油與石化盈利跑贏中石化。該行又指,天然氣部門表現略遜該行預期,但畢道仍保持可盈利。該行繼續預期天然氣業務盈利改善,因管道天然氣進口成本下降較國際油價滯後九個月,以及中國天然氣市場趨同市場基準的定價機制。該行維持對中石油「增持」評級及6.1元目標價。
瑞信表示,中石油勘探及生產業務次季表現亮眼,反映中石油在中國本地天然氣市場的強大定價能力,尤其政策利好上游供應商把成本轉嫁用戶。該行認為這是結構性趨勢,相信中石油最能受惠。該行上調對中石油目標價,由6.5元升至6.7元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。該行亦上調對中石油今年至2025年每股盈利預測7%至8%,又認為縱使該股今年已累升58%,但目前預測油價每桶85美元且有8厘股息率,現價6倍預測市盈率及0.7倍市賬率亦低於歷史平均。
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本網最新綜合6間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入(「確信買入」名單)│6.8元
瑞信│跑贏大市│6.5元->6.7元
美銀證券│買入│6.5元->6.7元
摩根士丹利│增持│6.5元
摩根大通│增持│6.1元
瑞銀│買入│6.2元
券商│觀點
高盛│次季業績勝預期,受上游產量及成本控制推動
瑞信│次季業績略勝預期,股價仍具吸引力
美銀證券│上游勘探開採業務及天然氣銷售的表現穩健
摩根士丹利│次季勘探及生產盈利勝預期,股息符預期
摩根大通│次季業績勝預期,料全年淨利潤創新高
瑞銀│次季盈利略勝市場預期
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