《內地樓市》官媒「學習時報」:內地房市面臨三大壓力正轉型升級 房價普漲大開發時代基本結束
中共中央黨校主辦的《學習時報》發表文章,指內地房市供求關係正發生深刻變化,城鎮住房矛盾已從總量維度轉向結構性問題,房地產業多年來「高負債、高槓桿、高周轉」發展模式已難以為繼,房市正在朝著價格穩、結構優、質量高的方向實現自我修復和轉型升級。
文章引述國統局數據顯示,去年內地常住人口城鎮化率達到65.22%,已逐步接近拐點,可以預見內地城鎮化步伐將進入減速階段。從人口變化看,去年內地人口數量首次出現負增長,總和生育率跌破1.1,熱點城市人口淨流入放緩,非熱點城市人口淨流出增加。內地城鎮住房市場已從增量時代邁向存量時代;發展目標已經從「住有所居」逐步升級為「住有宜居」、「住有安居」。
近年來,內地人口老化逐步加劇,人口年齡集中區間段由30至45歲,逐漸上升為40至60歲,該年齡段經濟狀況較好、購房能力較強,而且契合置換居住條件的正常周期,市場上的改善需求逐漸增加,或將逐步成為需求的重要組成部分,甚至是主導部分。
長期看,區域分化是未來房地產市場的持續性特徵,房價普漲的大開發時代基本結束,城市之間房地產市場分化格局正在進一步顯現。且持續三年的疫情衝擊對區域住房市場產生了不同程度的影響,住房市場面臨供給衝擊、預期轉弱和需求收縮三大壓力。大城市住房投機需求被遏制,中小城市住房需求疲軟。
文章總結指,以城市群為整體制定房地產調控政策,並將調控政策的傳導機制納入其中,增強房地產市場發展韌性,促進房地產市場平穩健康發展。
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