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《大行報告》中金:內地LPR降幅小於MLF 或有助對沖內銀息差收窄 更好支持實體經濟
中金發表報告指,上日(21日)內地1年期LPR調降10個基點,5年期LPR沒有下調,調降幅度小於市場預期,尤其是5年期。8月15日,人行年內第二度下調1年期MLF基準利率15個基點至2.5%。這是2019年LPR改革以來首次一年和五年LPR下調幅度均低於MLF降幅、首次五年LPR未跟隨基準利率下調,也是自2022年5月以來首次五年期LPR調降幅度小於一年期LPR。 報告指,LPR調降幅度小於MLF、五年期首次未跟隨調降,或因LPR更多影響的新增貸款利率已降至歷史低位,部分對公國企貸款利率或出現過度競爭低價,而目前更需要調整的是存量城投和按揭利率,後者更多通過協議重定價而非調降LPR實現。 報告認為,LPR降幅小於MLF或有助於對沖銀行息差收窄風險,以更好支持實體經濟,並預期存款利率有望下調。而隱債流動性風險的緩釋有助於修覆債市風險偏好,也有助於增強地方政府逆周期調節能力,發揮貨幣與財政協同作用。
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