《大行報告》瑞銀下調中國飛鶴(06186.HK)目標價至9.26元 評級「買入」
瑞銀發表研究報告指,中國飛鶴(06186.HK)早前發盈警,預計半年收入按年持平,約95.8億至98.7億元人民幣,而淨利潤介乎於14.5億至17.5億元人民幣,按年減少約23.2%至36.4%。集團上半年的銷量趨勢較嬰幼兒配方奶粉整體行業需求理想,成人和兒童奶粉產品的較高增長亦支撐了銷售上升,表明集團於期內有堅韌的市場份額。然而,集團的淨利潤率按年收縮5.1至8.6個百分點,到15至18%,考慮到去年上半年盈利能力已處於較低基數,該行認為這是低於市場預期。
該行表示,受惠於疫情期間被壓抑的需求,預計明年新生兒數量將出現反彈,行業需求亦將相應企穩。集團年初至今的穩健市場份額,或有助於其在明年市場穩定時較同行實現更快復甦。
該行下調集團2023至25年的盈測及每股盈測9至16%,主要是由於產品結構變化和競爭激烈,將2023淨利潤預測下調3.6%至48億元人民幣,但分別上調2024至25年預測20%和19%,至57億及68億元人民幣。該行將目標價由10.28元下調至9.26元,維持「買入」評級。
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