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《大行報告》招商證券上調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至147元 評級「增持」
招商證券發表報告指,阿里-SW(09988.HK)(BABA.US)截至今年6月底止首財季收入按年增長14%,超出市場預期5%。集團又宣布採用基於「1+6+N」戰略架構下的新業務分部報告方式。國際零售、菜鳥、本地服務和數字媒體與娛樂(DME)等業務實現強勁的增長加快,按年增速落在30%至41%的區間,這是受惠於訂單增長25%至30%。淘天集團收入增長12%,其中客戶管理收入增10%,直銷營收增21%,均超出該行預期。管理層表示將繼續投資於用戶增長,集團整體利潤率按年改善。集團首財季非GAAP淨利潤增長43%,超出市場預期16%。阿里巴巴持續進行股份回購,管理層表示目前已減少流通股份4%。 報告引述管理層指,預計短期內宏觀環境依然可能出現波動,但對用戶增長和商家增長機遇持樂觀態度,並重申用戶優先、提升價格競爭力而不進行大規模補貼的策略。阿里目標是提升用戶心智份額,從而增加消費支出和市場份額。其他業務,如餓了麼和高德繼續表現良好,但線下相關業務的收入增長預計將在今年放緩。阿里的雲智能業務上市進程進展順利,但由於包括監管批准在內的各方參與,故仍存在不確定性。阿里已做好推出人工智能產品的準備,並正在等待監管批准。 該行相信,隨著集團進行業務分拆,例如阿里雲擬進行IPO及政策支持下的消費回升等潛在催化劑,將有助顯示集團的價值。該行調整對其盈測,主要提高集團利潤率預測,美股及H股目標價分別上調至150美元及147港元,評級「增持」。
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