《即日市評》內地新增貸款遠遜預期 恆指倒跌 碧桂園續挫
受保險股及騰訊(00700.HK)拖累,恆指今日下滑退守萬九關。美國7月通脹按年增長為3.2%,較6月上升0.2個百分點,略低於市場預期的3.3%,剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格,7月核心通脹按年升4.7%好於市場預期的4.8%。美股道指及納指隔晚各升0.2%及0.1%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率降至4.086厘,美匯指數處102.49,道指期貨最新升10點或0.03%,納指期貨最新跌0.18%。人行收市後公布7月新增貸款3,459億人民幣(市場原預期7,800億元),7月M2按年升10.7%。人民幣即期收跌268點報7.2340兌一美,上證綜指今日跌65點或2%收3,189點,深證成指跌2.2%,而滬深兩市成交額共7,635億人民幣人民幣。
恆指今日先升後回,高開71點,早段升98點見19,346點後掉頭向下,曾跌198點一度低見19,049點,全日跌173點或0.9%,收19,075點;國指跌87點或1.3%,收6,540點;恆生科技指數跌104點或2.4%,收4,273點。大市全日成交總額965.79億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流人53.97億及30.01億元人民幣。科技股方面,騰訊(00700.HK)跌1.2%報335.8元,美團(03690.HK)跌2.7%。
恆指本周累跌464點或2.4%、國指本周累跌191點或2.9%、恆生科指本周累跌224點或5.4%。市場關注中美關係發展,拜登近日簽署行政命令限美企對華高科技投資,中國商務部發言人表示將保留採取措施權利。
【恆指反覆跌 阿里績後漲】
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)首財季非公認會計準則淨利潤按年增長49%勝預期,全日股價升1.1%報95.3元。大和發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴2024財年首季非公認會計準則淨利潤超越該行預期約22%,相信是由於菜鳥、本地生活以及大文娛業務虧損少於預期所致。
鑑於用戶量健康增長及參與度提升,大和認為阿里市場份額流失的速度可能會逐漸放緩,未來主要催化劑包括人工智能模型商業化、阿里雲人工智能服務變現,以及旗下阿里雲、盒馬、菜鳥等業務分拆上市。
【跌股佔三成 碧桂園續挫】
港股主板今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為11比30(上日17比22);恆指成份股今日17隻股份上升,下跌股份61隻,升跌比率為21比76(上日為58為35);大市今日錄沽空182.97億元,佔可沽空股份成交額817.48億元的22.382%(上日為19.55%)。
碧桂園(02007.HK)料上半年虧蝕450億至550億人民幣,全日股價跌5.8%報0.98元,市值270.85億元。碧服(06098.HK)跌2.5%報7.46元。花樣年(01777.HK)今日復牌,全日下挫55%報0.09元。
高盛指,碧桂園年初至今的銷售額弱於預期,而且流動性壓力增加,予其「中性」評級,目標價下調至1.4元。該行下調其2023至25年的基本盈利預測,以反映年初至今的房地產銷售和平均售價低於預期,近期未能支付息票和土地付款亦證明了流動性壓力不斷上升。鑑於集團在低線城市的敞口較高,該行預計其流動性狀況仍將充滿挑戰。該行分析顯示,公司可能需要1,000億至1,500億元人民幣的額外資本以維持較小規模的建設項目發展。
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