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《大行報告》匯豐研究:碧桂園(02007.HK)未能支付兩筆已到期美元債利息 可能對內銀及港銀信貸造成影響
碧桂園(02007.HK)未能支付兩筆已到期美元債利息,內房債危機發酵。匯豐研究發表報告指,這或對內銀及港銀信貸質量造成影響。對港銀而言,個別銀行不會披露對個別公司的貸款敞口,但碧桂園7月20日公布從多家金融機構獲得等值66億港元的港元及美元貸款,為期30個月,中銀香港是代理行;7月時參與行或將碧桂園敞口歸劃為正常(而非關注類貸款或不良貸款)。 報告指,碧桂園事態發展或觸發港銀新一輪內部降級,引致撥備增加。以規模而言,假設中銀香港就上述7月貸款參與佔比三分之一,該敞口將相當於中銀香港毛貸款總額0.13%或總資產0.06%;假設該筆貸款進一步撥備50%,將影響中銀香港今年盈利約2.6%。不過,在被視為違約前,碧桂園有30日寬限期支付債息。 對內銀而言,截至去年底碧桂園總表內債務達1.43萬億元人民幣(下同),當中銀行及其他貸款達1,625億元(佔板塊貸款0.07%)。不過,碧桂園其他負債或觸發對客戶及供應商的更廣泛影響,窒礙復甦情緒。內地去年11月推出「十六條」為內房提供流動性支持,但最新發展反映或未足以拯救碧桂園。監管機構或需要加大力度穩定房市,包括潛在指引新貸款利率走低。同時,內銀或利用「十六條」對內房提出更寬容安排,如短期不確認更多不良貸款。 報告稱,由於內房與內銀關係密切,市場對更廣泛金融板塊料維持保守性立場。匯豐研究喜好估值不高而具強勁派息能力的銀行,如工行(01398.HK)及交行(03328.HK)H股,並喜好中銀香港,認為其民營內房敞口較同業為小。報告最不喜好郵儲行(01658.HK)、民行(01988.HK)及東亞(00023.HK),指其抵禦信貸風險的緩衝較弱。
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