《大行報告》匯豐研究下調旺旺(00151.HK)目標價至6.1元 評級「買入」
匯豐研究發表報告指,中國旺旺(00151.HK)股價自6月起累升4%,對比同期恆指則下跌1%。該行認為,這是由於投資者偏好防守性股票,惟相信部分利好因素已被消化。展望2023財年,考慮到零售網絡和消費場景的溫和復甦,看好公司乳製品業務在補貨需求和低基數效應的推動下錄得改善。此外,對於休閒食品業務,該行認為炎熱的夏季將有利於冷凍產品的銷售,但由於規模較小,相信對集團總收入增長的貢獻有限。
該行提到,棕櫚油、全脂奶粉和包裝紙等原材料價格今年以來一直呈下降趨勢,而由於糖的供應短缺,糖價出現短暫上漲。然而,該行認為目前的價格水平在中期內不可以持續,預計棕櫚油、全脂奶粉、和包裝紙的價格的按年分別下跌20%、18%及8%,而糖價則升10%,集團2023財年的毛利率將按年增1.8個百分點至45.6%。
該行表示,基於2022財年收入低於預期,將2023和24財年收入預測分別下調2.7%和2.2%。考慮到原材料成本降幅大於預期,分別上調2023和24財年毛利率預測0.3個百分點和0.2個百分點,又分別下調淨利潤預測9.2%和9.1%。該行預計集團2025財年的收入和淨利潤將分別按年增長5%和5.5%。該行將旺旺目標價由6.7元下調至6.1元,維持「買入」評級。
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