《大行報告》匯豐研究下調地產及收租股目標價 偏好新地(00016.HK)及九龍倉置業(01997.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,本港地產行業基本面逐步改善,但認為未來業績可能仍會令人失望。三大擔憂包括寫字樓按揭利率封頂息率上升風險、利息支出激增,以及人民幣疲弱拖累盈利復甦。因此下調地產及收租股目標價,詳見另表。考慮到盈利能見度,該行偏好新地(00016.HK)及九龍倉置業(01997.HK)。
報告指,寫字樓供應量持續增加,惟缺乏租賃需求,可能會對租金和價格表現帶來壓力。認為寫字樓按揭利率封頂息率(cap rate)存在上升風險。該行認為,置地、冠君產業信托(02778.HK)和恆地(00012.HK)等公司可能面臨較高風險。
報告提到,在加息周期下,資產負債率高且浮動債務比例高的公司,由於利息成本增加,上半年盈利復甦可能較弱或盈利下滑。由於利率在下半年仍可能維持在較高水平,盈測向下修訂的風險可能很高。該行認為對嘉里建設(00683.HK)、希慎興業(00014.HK)和恆地影響最大。至於人民幣疲軟,則對恆隆地產(00101.HK)、嘉里建設和九倉(00004.HK)等內地業務敞口較大企業的估值帶來影響。
該行全面調低對地產股資產淨值估計及目標價。目標價平均下調6.3%,今年至後年盈利預測平均下調4.7%至7.9%,以反映較高的利息成本假設和較低的內地資產租金增長假設。該預測平均比市場預計低出1.7%至4.6%。
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