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研報掘金丨國信證券:山西汾酒Q2收入持續高增長,復興版品牌培育加速,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯7月26日丨國信證券25日研報指出,山西汾酒(600809.SH)二季度收入持續高增長,業績繼續彰顯品牌高度。二季度行業呈現弱復甦趨勢,公司依靠強大的品牌張力和清香消費氛圍,在長江以北等傳統強勢市場逆勢實現慣性高動銷,長江以南市場擴張勢能不減。預計2023Q2青花系列、老白汾系列貢獻主要業績增量,預計收入增速30%以上,玻汾系列適度放量滿足市場剛需。費用精細化改革釋放利潤彈性,復興版品牌培育持續加速。認為公司2023年繼續強化復興版高端圈層培育,未來複興版有望在強品牌勢能助推下,打造成千元價位大單品。在強品牌勢能下,青花30·復興版以下產品具備慣性增長趨勢,短期行業需求波動不影響中長期增長中樞。該行維持此前盈利預測並引入2025年,預計公司2023-2025年實現營收323.6/388.5/448.1億元,同比增長23.5%/20.0%/15.3%;預計實現歸母淨利潤103.4/129.9/154.2億元,同比增長27.8%/25.5%/18.8%;對應PE 24.7/19.7/16.6X。考慮到公司經營勢能延續,復興版培育有序推進,維持“買入”評級。
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