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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調敏華(01999.HK)目標價至8.6元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 07-26 16:10
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,自6月27日以來敏華(01999.HK)股價累升17%,相對於同期恆指跌1%,同業平均升7%。該行認為,敏華股價跑贏主要由於房屋銷售和新屋開工的改善、渠道補充庫存以及美國強勁的銷售數據,利好敏華的出口業務。美國房地產市場的復甦及渠道補充庫存應會推動海外訂單的長期復甦,而並非短暫的反彈。此外,該行指人民幣自7月以來升值,有利於H股流動性,從而帶動敏華股價上升。 該行引述Wind數據指出,敏華自4月以來的皮革、鋼材、木材、包裝紙和化學品的原材料成本按年分別下跌20%、15%、13%、20%和13%。該行料公司2024財年的單位成本將按年下跌11%,相對於2023財年按年跌8%。對公司2024財年毛利率預測為39.6%,較2023財年水平高出1.1個百分點。 另外,由於該行認為國內家具市場疲弱,將影響敏華的國內銷售,因此分別下調2024至2026財年收入預測4.9%、5.1%和5.3%。惟基於原材料價格放緩,將2024財年毛利率預測上調1.5個百分點,並維持2025及2026財年預測不變。該行又將公司2024至2026財年每股盈利預測分別上調1.9%、下跌3.6%和下跌3.7%。該行維持對敏華「買入」評級,目標價由9.1元下調至8.6元。
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