《大行報告》中金:內房政策具適度優化空間 未來3至6個月把握兩條主線
中金發表報告表示,昨日中共中央政治局召開會議,對於房地產領域提出要切實防範化解重點領域風險,適應中國房地產市場供求關係發生重大變化的新形勢,適時調整優化房地產政策,因城施策用好政策工具箱,更好滿足居民剛性和改善性住房需求,促進房地產市場平穩健康發展。要加大保障性住房建設和供給,積極推動城中村改造和「平急兩用」公共基礎設施建設,盤活改造各類閑置房產。
該行指,首次在最高層會議提及「房地產市場供求關係發生重大變化」。本次政治局會議首次在最高決策層面明確了房地產供求關係變化。該行認為這種變化主要是指,經歷了過去20餘年的高速建設,中國房地產市場已經整體上度過了供不應求、長期過熱的階段,城鎮居民住房質、量已經得到了明顯提升;在這一新形勢下,一部分新房需求已經達峰或進入下行周期、同時存量及增量住房供給較為充分的城市,有必要在「因城施策」框架下優化房地產政策,以支持合理的「剛性和改善性」購房需求釋放。結合當前政策現狀,該行認為對於「賣一買一」、「賣舊買新」家庭的政策支持空間較大,或在符合上述條件的城市中優先落地。
中金指,政治局會議明確了在新供需條件下,房地產政策具有適度優化空間,預計後續各地在因城施策框架下有所發力,或有望帶動基本面指標逐步築底並溫和復蘇。未來3至6月維度房開板塊把握兩條主線,第一是有望率先受益於局地復甦的「進取者」,H股包括華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、建發(01908.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)。
第二是手握核心資產的「現金牛」,如中國國貿(600007.SH)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)。物管板塊推薦估值已進入價值區間的穩健型物企標的,如萬物雲(02602.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)和保利物業(06049.HK),代建板塊推薦綠城管理控股 (09979.HK)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.