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《大行報告》瑞銀削內地體品股目標價 內需板塊喜好百勝中國、九毛九、名創優品及安踏
瑞銀發表報告,指內地經濟學家預計6月宏觀數據乏力,政策刺激溫和。根據該行的渠道調查,由於消費者信心減弱,勞動節假期後運動服裝的需求大幅放緩。6月份分銷商零售額按年錄得低單位數負增長至中單位數正增長,主要由於上海封城後需求被壓抑,去年的基數較高。 該行考慮到行業增長疲弱,對體品股的2024至2025年盈利增長預測由12%下調至9%。鑑於目前消費者物價指數和宏觀趨勢疲弱,該行料體品股在提升價格方面帶來的毛利率擴張將有所減少。對於今年上半年,該行料安踏(02020.HK)業績最強,李寧(02331.HK)受壓,預期安踏、特步(01368.HK)及李寧的收入按年增長14%、10%及8%,盈利則料分別增21%、增12%及跌6%。另削內地體品股目標價(見另表)。 此外,該行指餐飲股在疫情下實施積極的成本控制措施,儘管復甦趨勢較弱,但有關措施仍對公司盈利帶來支持。該行預期海底撈(06862.HK)、九毛九(09922.HK)及呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)今年上半年純利分別約15.97億、2.21億及9,000萬元人民幣,分別超預期、符合預期及遜預期。當中,海底撈在1及2月份並未招聘足夠的員工來維持正常營運,該行料將有利公司毛利率。九毛九盈利受人民幣貶值造成外匯損失的負面影響,估算公司上半年相關損失達5,000萬元人民幣。 至於零售股方面,該行指泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)及名創優品(MNSO.US)在上半年海外擴張的推動下,其消費者需求較其他品牌更具韌性,預期第二季的收入分別按年增長約35%及38%,估計泡泡瑪特上半年盈利達4.72億元人民幣,而名創優品次季盈利達4.81億元人民幣,兩者均有望勝市場預期。 在該行覆蓋的內地體品股、餐飲股和零售股中,較為偏好名創優品、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、九毛九及安踏。
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