美股走牛，納斯達克ETF今年升超20%
格隆匯7月18日丨美股持續走牛，華夏基金納斯達克ETF今年升幅達41.99%， 廣發基金納指ETF、博時基金納斯達克指數ETF、國泰基金納指ETF、嘉實基金納斯達克指數ETF、招商基金納斯達克100ETF跟升，南方基金標普500ETF基金、國泰基金標普500ETF、華夏基金標普ETF、博時基金標普500ETF今年張超20%。
7月後，美股將啟動為期1個月左右的二季報業績披露期，業績能否超預期對於當前海外科技股行情的持續性重要。年初以來，隨着AI產業趨勢不斷強化，以納斯達克指數創新引領的全球科技股大幅上升。
根據Bloomberg預計，7月中旬由美股銀行股開啟序幕，隨後7月20日特斯拉公佈業績，7月最後一週和8月第一週陸續披露微軟、谷歌、Meta、亞馬遜和蘋果等科技巨頭，以及部分能源、消費龍頭股業績。而本輪AI算力巨頭英偉達業績披露時間為8月24日。
近日，納斯達克指數公司宣佈，納指100將在2023年7月24日開市前進行“特別再平衡”（special rebalance），以保證將5只市值最大的公司股票權重佔比維持在40%以下，這是納斯達克交易所歷史上罕見的一次調整。
高盛策略師認為，這次調整並不太可能解決科技股高度集中給追蹤該基準指數的投資者帶來的挑戰。策略師David J．Kostin在報吿中寫道，即使在調整之後，以科技股為主的納斯達克100指數將依然“過於集中”，而不會被視為主動管理型多元化基金。
對於美股接下來的行情，華爾街出現爭議。
華爾街知名空頭、摩根士丹利首席股票策略師威爾遜近日表示，美國國內流動性指標不再支持股票估值上升，他強調，目前，這些指標的分化程度(即流動性下降，指數上升，這是一種看跌信號)達到近期最嚴重的水平。有着“華爾街最準策略師”之稱的美國銀行策略師哈特內特認為，隨着今年下半年粘性通脹和央行強硬政策的風險籠罩市場，做空美國股市的時機逐漸成熟。
高盛看好接下來的美股行情，預計今年迄今僅由少數幾隻大盤股領升的升勢將繼續擴大至更廣泛的股票標的，對於美股後續仍將上升的邏輯，高盛給出了兩點邏輯支撐，一是AI全面普及為企業利潤增速提供重要支持，二是經濟衰退概率縮小給美股帶來強勁上升動力。高盛研究團隊在7月初將未來3個月、6個月和12個月標普500指數的預測值分別修正至4300點、4500點、4700點。
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