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《大行報告》富瑞:長實(01113.HK)終止出售波老道項目交易影響大致中性 偏好新地(00016.HK)
富瑞發表研究報告指出,長實集團(01113.HK)披露由於波老道項目買方未能繼續交易,因此公司終止出售該項目,並沒收買方已支付的金額約21億元訂金。該行認為,長實終止出售波老道項目交易影響大致中性,儘管公司可將沒收的訂金確認為收入,但假設該項目其後以較低的平均售價轉售,料對2025年的盈利帶來不利影響,並不太可能對股息產生正面影響。 該行對長實2023財年的每股盈利預測上調4%以反映意外收益,對其2025財年每股盈利預測下調16%。另認為公司今年派息或按年持平,因盈利仍受淡季因素及內地與海外宏觀不利因素的影響。 此外,該行認為在供應積壓依然充足下,仍然預期今年餘下時間的樓價上行空間有限。該行更為看好零售收租股如領展(00823.HK)及九龍倉置業(01997.HK),其次為住宅及寫字樓。在發展商中,該行雖然認可長實的長期價值創造戰略(如收購Civitas)和積極的資產回收(將酒店資產轉變為住宅),惟更偏好短期盈利可見度較高的新地(00016.HK)。 富瑞對地產股最新評級及目標價表列如下: 股份|評級|目標價(港元) 長實|持有|47元 領展|買入|58元 新地|買入|115元 九龍倉置業|買入|50元
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