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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調恆指年底目標至19,580 偏好新能源車及航空業等
阿思達克 07-14 09:44
匯豐研究發表報告指,雖然內地經濟復甦步伐未如預期,但經濟增長與股市脫節並不罕見。目前仍有一些地區增長強勁,在負面情緒的背景下,該行分析師仍對內地企業盈利和政府進一步出台刺激政策的前景持樂觀態度,並認為估值需求不足和基金持倉疲弱,兩者均接近2022年10月低位,限制了下行風險。 匯豐研究將恆指年底目標由22,490下調至19,580;國企指數目標由8,170下調至6,680。不過,該行認為H股估值仍然吸引,目前國企指數相當於未來12個月預測市盈率8.4倍,遠低於五年平均的11.4倍。 匯豐研究偏好新能源車、航空業及國企內房等,投資策略則取決於優質公司。內地電動車巨頭比亞迪(01211.HK)已取代長期領先的大眾汽車成為國內最暢銷的汽車品牌。值得關注的一點是內地政策制定者亦希望促進高質量增長,例如上個月為購買電動汽車提供新的稅收減免政策。 該行同時亦重點關注可再生能源,產能擴張已步入正軌,風能和太陽能裝機容量按年增長12%,部分龍頭企業表現突出。此外,消費品、航空和免稅公司將受惠於經濟復甦,情況亦對個別互聯網股有利。 該行又認為,美國聯儲局的政策轉向將降低香港的吸引力。雖然聯儲局的轉向對股市而言有利,但鑑於金融股在香港股市中佔比較重,轉向不一定有利於香港股市。香港金融行業業務營運潛在受到利率影響。相反,市場憧憬利率在未來數月見項,相信會對地產行業有利。
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