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研報掘金丨西南證券:皖維高新業績環比持續改善,趨勢有望持續,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯7月13日丨西南證券12日研報指出,皖維高新(600063.SH)2023年上半年公司預計實現歸母淨利潤3.2億元-3.6億元,同比下降66.7%-62.5%,單二季度環比上升46.2%-76.9%。業績環比改善明顯,趨勢有望持續。短期看:5月份以來,PVA庫存有下降趨勢,廠商裝置負荷偏低僅有50%左右,部分廠商有檢修計劃,預估7月份聚乙烯醇產品產量為4.5萬噸,較6月份降幅12.33%,市場供應端短期有縮減預期,需求端自4月份以來,PVA表觀消費量邊際改善;長期看,國內PVA行業完成洗牌,2022年湘維10萬噸裝置部分復產,未來無其他新增產能,我國是全球最主要的聚乙烯醇消費市場,近年來PVB、PVA水溶膜等高附加值新興領域對聚乙烯醇的需求佔比不斷提升,我國PVA消費結構中 PVB、PVA膜等高端需求佔比相對較低,在相關領域具有較大的市場提升空間,長期價格中樞有望上行。公司作為中國唯一一家PVA—PVB樹脂—PVB膠片的全產業鏈企業,汽車級PVB有望迎來突破。預計2023-2025年EPS分別為0.44元、0.79元、1.02元,對應動態PE分別為12倍、7倍、5倍,給予公司2023年15倍PE,對應目標價6.60元,維持“買入”評級。
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