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《大行報告》中金:阿里(09988.HK)主要業務穩健恢復 料利潤表現亮眼
中金發表報告指,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)主要業務穩健恢復及利潤表現亮眼,料其2024財年首財季(即截至2023年6月底止季度)收入按年增長9%至2,250億人民幣,高於一致預期1.5%,主要由於中國商業和國際商業的良好表現;該行預計阿里上財季調整EBITA將按年增長16%至399億元人民幣,主要由於各業務板塊的有效控費。 該行預計阿里巴巴2024財年首財季國內零售GMV和客戶管理收入(CMR)均年增長7%,認為除了去年同期低基數外,增速全面轉正還得益於公司在價格力、內容化和直播等方向的調整,QM數據顯示4至5月淘寶APP的DAU按年增長7.6%。618期間淘寶天貓交易額按年正增長,考慮到618期間並不算低的基數水平,該行判斷下半年阿里GMV和CMR均有望延續正增長趨。 中金測算阿里2024財年首財季旗下中國商業EBITA利潤為483億人民幣;菜鳥速運主要依靠整合丹鳥等現有的末端網絡和配送能力對外提供服務,預計整體投入量級可控;本地生活和國際商業板塊在新的支出方式下仍有減虧訴求,該行預計阿里旗下本地生活和國際商業板塊於2024財年首財季EBITA虧損分別為28億元和9億人民幣,按年虧損進一步減少。 該行維持對阿里巴巴「跑贏行業」評級及目標價137元,相當於其2024財年非通用會計準則市盈率12倍。
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