《大行報告》大摩:看好內地三大電訊股 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表報告,指看好中資電訊股的增長健康、資本支出見頂和股東回報改善,預期2022至2025年的電訊行業的服務收入、EBITDA及淨利潤的年均複合增長率分別為5%、4%及8%,主要受雙增長引擎推動。
對於傳統電訊服務,該行料增長勢頭將持續穩定,因5G ARPU穩步提升,以及良性競爭和監管。對於工業互聯網(雲、IDC、人工智能、網絡安全等),該行料在監管支持和電訊公司競爭優勢下,由於行業增長潛力巨大,三大電訊股於2022至2025年的收入年均複合增長率達14%。
此外,該行認為電訊商的現金流和股東回報有所改善,特別是在5G資本支出高峰期已過的情況下。中移動(00941.HK)及中電信(00728.HK)均致力於今年將派息率提高至70%以上,相對於2022年的65%至67%;而聯通(00762.HK)去年派息率亦由2021年的46%提高至50%。
該行預期2022至2025年間,中移動、中電信及聯通的股息年均複合增長率分別達8%、13%及14%,重申對內地「電訊三雄」H股「增持」評級,以反映其基本面穩固、股東回報改善,以及估值吸引,料今年股息率達7%至8%,預測今年市盈率介乎8至10倍。對中電信、中移動及聯通的H股目標價分別為5元、75元及7.5元。
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