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《大行報告》匯豐研究:內地股份制銀行處於重估最佳位置 薦信行(00998.HK)及光大銀行(06818.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,由於財富管理情緒或有改善,預計2024年內地股份制銀行的利潤將會錄得增長。當中,中信銀行(00998.HK)在財富管理業務上表現最好;投資者對民生銀行(01988.HK)在私營企業和中小企業風險敞口有擔憂。該行看好信行及光大銀行(06818.HK),均予「買入」評級。 該行表示,由於對中信銀行、光大銀行和民生銀行在資產質量、貸款需求、資本短缺和財富管理疲弱方面的擔憂,銀行的市賬率大打折扣。該行認為,當信心回升和財富管理服務需求得到改善,該些銀行將處於有利地位。 該行預計,明年內地股份制銀行收費收入將會加快增長,部分原因是今年基數較低及財富管理勢頭有改善。該行認為,2023至24年它們的信貸成本將低於2022年的水平。隨著中國經濟復甦,不良貸款應該會下降。但如果私營企業的流動性水平惡化,房地產市場和金融投資的相關風險可能會增加,相信信行比民生銀行和光大銀行有更大的風險緩衝。鑑於發展商貸款規模較大,民生銀行對房地產行業變化會更加敏感。 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 中信銀行(00998.HK) | 買入 | 5.3 → 5.4 民生銀行(01988.HK) | 持有 | 2.5 → 2.6 光大銀行(06818.HK) | 買入 | 3.1 → 3.15
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