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《大行報告》交銀國際上調網易-S(09999.HK)目標價至181元 評級「買入」
交銀國際發表報告指出,近日網易-S(09999.HK)多款手遊上線,包括《巔峰極速》(6月20日)、《哈利波特:魔法覺醒》(6月27日,日本),《逆水寒》於6月26日開啟預下載(6月30日正式上線)。 該行指出,參考其他端遊IP改編手遊的表現,預估《逆水寒》首月流水區間為8億至10億元人民幣;按照七麥數據,預估《巔峰極速》首月流水區間為4億至5億元人民幣;參照日本市場同等排名遊戲流水量級,預計《哈利波特》日本月流水在1億至2億元人民幣區間,後續若排名繼續提升,月流水仍有進一步上調可能性。預計該三款遊戲對網易今明兩年的手遊收入貢獻各8%及15%。 此外,該行指網易的《燕雲十六聲》於6月21日獲得版號審批並已開啟測試,有望在未來一年內上線,另外考慮到版號發放節奏進入常態化,《永劫無間》手遊等遊戲有望陸續獲批,公司手遊收入保持雙位數增長確定性強。 該行預期,網易新遊戲上線將帶動第三及第四季公司手遊收入按年增長16%及26%,今明兩年年手遊收入增速18%及15%。另外,公司微調網易今年預測,基於更為確定的遊戲增長前景,上調公司2024年收入及利潤預測各5%及4%。基於明年18倍遊戲業務市盈率(歷史平均水平),H股目標價由164元上調至181元。看好公司穩定營運能力,新遊儲備帶動收入增長確定性高,海外遊戲長期增長潛力尚未反映在當前預測中,維持「買入」評級。
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