The "Big Bank report" expects online retail sales in the mainland to rise by more than 19% in May. Ali's revenue rose 8% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.
Citi released a report that the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total volume of retail sales of social consumer goods rose 12.7% year-on-year in May. It is estimated that the total online retail sales of social consumer goods rose 19.3% year-on-year last month, and the penetration rate of online retail sales was 34%. The bank said online retail sales rose 13.8% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, while sales of midline physical goods rose 11.8% year-on-year.
Citi believes that total online retail sales of consumer goods and sales of online physical goods rose 19.3 per cent and 16.9 per cent respectively in May, roughly in line with the bank's expectations and reflecting a gradual improvement from a relatively high base in May last year. By classification, offline services continued to support the sale of meals bought out, but sales of food and beverages fell by 0.7% year-on-year, reflecting a reduction in reserve demand after the resumption of the economy. In addition, online clothing sales grew faster than the overall growth in May.
The bank forecasts that revenue from Alibaba (BABA.US) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (April to June) will rise 8 per cent year-on-year to 221.5 billion yuan, while customer management income will rise 3 per cent to 74 billion yuan. The bank also expects JD.com (09618.HK) (JD.US) second-quarter income to rise 4.2% year-on-year to 279 billion yuan, of which JD.com retail growth remained flat year-on-year, reflecting the slow rebound in large-scale projects and the impact of the restructuring of restored consumer goods.
The bank said that entering the second quarter of this year and the "618" promotion, the overall consumption trend is still prudent and selective, but it is believed that the strong performance in the pre-sale period and the potential last-minute shopping in the next few days may cause the gross trading volume and income of JD.com platform to be higher than the upside risk predicted by the bank.
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