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《大行報告》交銀國際:618首輪集中在剛需及平價品類 短視頻電商單量高速增長
交銀國際發表報告表示,就內地「618」電商節首輪數據,第一是主要貨架電商平台多數品類實現增長,大家電消費在促銷中集中釋放,據奧維雲網數據顯示線上銷售額增38%(5月29日至6月4日)。阿里(09988.HK)旗下天貓及淘寶加大產品價格力投入,參與商家145萬,仍是品牌商家618主場。京東-SW(09618.HK)參與首購新用戶按年增30%,參與百億補貼的商品數量為3月上線時的10倍。 第二是短視頻電商單量高速增長,提升貨架電商用戶心智。快手(01024.HK)於6月1至3日單量/買家數按年各增72%及50%,品牌商品/短視頻掛車交易總額(GMV)各增222%及128%。生鮮、家電、服飾鞋靴增約200%、500%及60%。抖音(截至6月8日17時)支付單量/動銷商家數為去年同期的1.6倍及1.8倍。 該行指,「618」電商節首輪預售需求釋放集中在較為剛需及平價的品類,考慮當前整體消費環境,以及低基數效應減弱,預計6月增速將會放緩。維持第二季度主要電商平台的增速預期。該行預計第二季度電商行業增速12%。 交銀國際指,阿里受消費需求逐漸恢復及在用戶獲取及活躍度上加大投入,預計GMV按年恢復正增長約5%。京東自營因耐用品佔比高於行業及業務調整存在不確定性,預計增速仍為負(-2%)。京東POP隨著生態改善,有望同步行業大盤增速。拼多多憑借高性價比用戶心智和更為剛需的品類結構,預計仍將為貨架電商中增速最快的平台(+27%)。 該行指短期實物電商行業增長仍有壓力。該行看好有GMV增量的公司,基數較大的平台在經濟逐漸復甦、重點品類受競爭影響減弱情況下,GMV應將恢復正增長。維持行業偏好首先是拼多多(PDD.US)(予「買入」級及目標價107美元),第二是阿里(BABA.US)(予「買入」級及目標價128美元),第三是京東(JD.US)(予「中性」級及目標價41美元)。
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