余偉文:港元拆息往後一段日子或仍處較高水平
金管局總裁余偉文在《匯思》撰文表示,近日港元拆息出現較大幅度的波動,不時吸引市場和公眾的注意。港元拆息除了受美息走勢影響外,同時也受本地市場港元資金供求所左右,以致港美息差的幅度會因應短期資金供求關係的變化而擴闊或縮窄。
余偉文指,銀行體系總結餘從一、兩年前的3,000多億元水平逐步下降到目前的約450億元,池子小了,港元拆息對於港元資金需求變化的敏感度自然較以往有所增加,更容易受港元資金需求影響而出現較顯著的波動。而影響港元資金供求的因素可大致分為兩類,第一類是較實質的市場行為,主要包括資本市場活動,以及年結、季結和上市公司派息安排等季節性因素;第二類則涉及港元市場參與者的行為模式。
他提到,這次港元拆息逐步爬升與以上提及的2019年美國利率單日大幅急升的事件不盡相同,然而,港元拆息在往後一段日子可能仍會處於較高的水平並不時出現較大幅度的波動。金管局一直與銀行保持溝通,要求銀行做好流動性管理工作,包括與大型客戶密切溝通,掌握其對港元收付的計劃和安排,並作好部署,避免不必要地「閘住」大量港元。
金管局又提醒銀行毋需擔心所謂「標籤效應」,在有需要時可隨時使用金管局的各類流動資金安排。最近有銀行使用金管局的貼現窗,正好顯示銀行已逐步適應新的市場變化,善用這些流動資金管理工具。
至於這種情況會否同步出現在銀行零售層面的存貸息率,余偉文指難以一概而論。銀行會因應本身的資金成本結構及其他有關的考慮,決定調整存貸息率的時機及幅度。他建議市民對銀行借貸利率的波動應該有所準備,並在作出置業、按揭或其他借貸決定時,小心考慮及管理好利率風險。金管局會密切監察市場變化,維持貨幣及金融穩定。
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