《大行報告》中信証券:人民幣雙櫃台股票模式有望吸引增量資金 提升港股流動性
中信証券發表報告表示,就港交所(00388.HK)公告稱,港幣-人民幣雙櫃台股票模式將在下周一(19日)開啟,截至6月9日,已有24家港股企業申請增設人民幣櫃台得到港交所批准,流通市值佔恆生綜指比達39.5%,主要分佈在信息技術、消費、金融相關板塊,佔申請公司流通市值比分別達32.9%、30.7%及17.7%。
該行認為增設人民幣交易櫃台有利於降低持有人民幣投資者投資港股的匯兌成本,短期有望吸引在港的離岸人民幣流入,提升港股整體流動性及交易活躍度。
該行認為,人民幣櫃台的開啟也有助於推進人民幣國際化,增加整體離岸人民幣的投資渠道。當前已有多國宣布可以使用人民幣結算跨國貿易,人民幣櫃台亦或受益於增量的離岸人民幣對中國資產的配置需求。中長期維度,雙櫃台模式將有效緩解港股流動性不足的問題,推動優質公司的估值修復;若人民幣櫃台可納入「港股通」交易機制下,境內投資者買賣人民幣計價的港股便可規避換匯成本和匯兌損益風險,更為利好南向高頻交易者
市場交易層面,中信証券認為增設人民幣交易櫃台有利於降低投資者投資港股的匯兌成本,雙櫃台模式有望吸引資金流入港股市場,提升港股整體的流動性及交易活躍度。截至今年3月,香港的人民幣存款與人民幣存款證餘額規模達9,506億元人民幣,以及未來可能納入交易範疇的南向資金都將是港股人民幣櫃台的潛在增量資金。當前恆生AH溢價指數達139.6,港股估值處於歷史較低水平,而未來增量流動性流入有望帶動估值中樞回升及AH溢價收窄。
另外當前已獲批准設立人民幣櫃台的個股中,有三家是二次上市股份,包含百度集團-SW(09888.HK)、京東集團-SW(09618.HK)與阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)。但根據現有規則,目前二次上市股份尚不能納入港股通,即便未來該等個股可以使用人民幣交易,是否能納入港股通尚不可知,具體還是取決於未來監管規定。(wl/a) ~
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