《大行報告》大摩下調本港今年樓價升幅預測至8% 降恆地及新世界評級
摩根士丹利發表報告,指本港較高的利率對高負債公司的每股收益和股價仍然不利。該行仍然視經營零售業務的地產商為首選,更看好寫字樓多於住宅市場,因為寫字樓租金正在觸底,而住宅價格反彈浪則稍歇。該行表示,雖然香港實際按揭利率上限為3.5%(以P減2.25%計),但更高的HIBOR意味著地產商今年更高的利息支出和每股盈利受壓。
該行估計,今年行業平均融資成本將按年增80個基點至3.9%,整體利息支出將按年增23%。融資成本每增加100個基點,新世界發展(00017.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)、九置(01997.HK)及嘉里建設(00683.HK)的盈利將按年減少介乎7%至32%。
該行指,本港住宅價格較去年12月的谷底累升約7%,但預計隨著交易量放緩和投資需求疲軟,升勢料稍歇,報告將本港今年住宅樓價升幅預測由原先10%下調至8%。寫字樓租金料在今年持平,並於明年增長3%;今年零售銷售增長預測則維持於22%。
大摩偏好依次為零售、辦公室、住宅(原先依次為零售、住宅、辦公室),並將恆地評級由「與大市同步」下調至「減持」,新世界發展及嘉里則由「增持」降至「與大市同步」。該行將九置的評級由「減持」上調至「與大市同步」,認為由於租戶銷售強勁復甦,集團或會受惠於更高的營業額租金分成,又認為香港寫字樓租金將會觸底,將太古地產(01972.HK)評級由「減持」上調至「與大市同步」,詳見另表。
該行提到,在經營零售業務的地產商中,更看好領展(00823.HK)和希慎(00014.HK);在住宅發展商中,更看好新地(00016.HK),因為其負債率較低且大型項目敞口佔比較高,應該會有更高銷售率。
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