《大行報告》大華繼顯:內房銷售轉弱 市場對民營內房憂慮重燃
大華繼顯發表內房行業報告表示,據中指數據,內地截至上周二(23日)的房屋銷售數據進一步放緩,66個內地城市平均每周新屋銷售,較截至4月23日止平均每周新屋銷售下跌16.4%;其中10個核心城市,二手房的平均每週銷售量按月下降22.6%,該行亦指珠海萬達商管上市情況或引發民營內房企業融資渠道再次收緊的憂慮。
該行指華潤置地(01109.HK)和中國海外(00688.HK)仍然是該行首選,均予「買入」評級,各予目標價47.48元及27.14元。該行下調寶龍地產(01238.HK)評級至「持有」,調低目標價至1元。
該行指,內地消費復甦乏力以及投資者興趣低迷,或意味著萬達不太可能在2023年底前完成其商業管理 子公司珠海萬達商管的新股上市。該行粗略估計,至今年底萬達將面臨最高達667億人民幣的債務,其中近60%是珠海萬達商管IPO一旦失敗或潛在引發的回購義務/提前還款的影響。
大華繼顯指,珠海萬達商管IPO的潛在失敗,不僅會給萬達帶來較大的資金缺口,也可能導致民營企業流動性風險上升,該行維持對內房行業「與大市同步」評級。值得注意的是,該行料碧桂園(02007.HK)、雅居樂(03383.HK)和新城(01030.HK)於今年下半年仍面臨大量債券到期/贖回,估計龍湖(00960.HK)和中駿(01966.HK)的流動性狀況較佳。
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