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《即日市評》恆指「四連跌」 美團及煤股捱沽
美國總統拜登指與美國眾議院議長在本港時間剛過去周日(28日)再次通電話後終於提高債務上限達成最終協議,相關法案預計周三(31日)開始交付國會表決,港股今日(29日)受科網股拖累持續向下。美股道指及納指上周五(26日)各升1%及2.2%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率升至3.81厘,美匯指數升至104.2,今日為美國陣亡將士紀念日,美股將休市一天。人民幣即期跌240點收報7.0787兌一美元,上證綜指今日升8點或0.3%,收3,221點,深證成指跌0.8%,滬深兩市成交額共9,208億元人民幣。 恆指今日先升後回,今早高開80點後,雖然一度升132點曾高見18,879點,惟升勢乏力下倒跌,午後曾跌229點一度低見18,517點,全日收18,551點,跌195點或1%,連跌四個交易日(累跌1,127點或5.7%),兼創去年11月底以來約半年收市低;國指全日跌82點或1.3%,收報6,251點;恆生科技指數跌43點或1.2%,收報3,647點。大市全日成交總額1,104.83億元,滬、深港通南下交易全日淨流入1.03億及淨流出7,900萬元人民幣。 【美團績後挫 網易有支持】 科網股走個別,騰訊(00700.HK)及阿里-SW(09988.HK)全日股價各走低2.9%及1.1%,而美團-W(03690.HK)公布首季業績後今日股價急跌近8.1%收115.8元‧。大和表示,下調對美團目標價由205元降至170元,重申「買入」評級,該行指雖然美團今年首季毛利率優預期,但估計公司於第二季度至第三季度旗下到店、酒店及旅遊(IHT)業務營運利潤率將降至30%水平,因需向用戶提供補貼和商戶佣金返還,以應對來自抖音競爭,此舉或令投資者失望,因市場將擔心美團毛利率未來有進一步下行的風險。 網易-S(09999.HK)公布首季業績後今日股價逆市彈高7.2%。摩根大通發表,上調網易目標價由170港元升至180港元,維持「增持」評級,指首季盈利強勁,投資者料公司今年網絡遊戲毛利率因渠道成本優化而結構性增強,並預計網易的強勁股價勢頭將持續,因網易預測今年市盈率僅15倍,仍低於全球在線遊戲同行20倍以上的市盈率。 【跌股千一隻 煤炭股受壓】 港股今日市寬續疲弱,主板股票的升跌比率為14比26(上日10比31),下跌股份1,104隻(跌幅3.1%),恆指成份股今日25隻股份上升,下跌股份48隻,升跌比率為32比63(上日為5比92);大市今日錄沽空195.78億元,佔可沽空股份成交額983.74億元的約19.902%(上日為19.71%)。 煤炭股捱沽,兗礦能源(01171.HK)全日股價下挫8.4%,中煤(01898.HK)跌5.9%。中資電力股則逆市上揚,華潤電力(00836.HK)股價升近4.7%,華電(01071.HK)揚10.4%。美銀證券指,由於需求低迷和供應充足,煤炭價格按周出現下跌,秦皇島5500大卡動力煤價按周跌9.8%至每噸870元人民幣。 中金發表大宗商品報告表示,就內地煤炭方面,認為今夏煤炭價格所面臨的上行壓力或比較有限。一是當前內地電廠與貿易商環節的庫存普遍較高,對於超預期需求或形成一定緩衝;第二是該行預計供應端內地煤炭產量或將處於高位,海外煤價格大幅回落也利好進口。第三是需求側居民用電在高溫下可能存在超預期的可能,但受制於地產疲軟和出口放緩,用電大戶製造業以及冶金、建材等非電用煤可能承壓,非電用煤需求偏弱可能壓制非長協的市場煤價表現。
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