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《大行報告》大摩:「中特估」引起市場重大關注 列出國企改革受惠股(表)
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指中證監主席易會滿去年11月首次提出探索中國特色的估值體系(中特估),以驅動國企估值重評。現時市場共識對國企的估值較其新興市場及全球同業平均折讓約20%。中特估獲市場重大關注,特別是A股市場。自去年末季以來,指數編製公司亦推出多種以國企為主題的指數。 報告稱,留意到內地政府有更大需要利用國企資產槓桿,以促進內地經濟向內需方向再平衡,並減少由愈發不可持續的信貸驅動增長所帶來的風險。在人口加速老化及全球經濟加快放緩下,國企可協助承受更多社會保障系統負擔,及促進生產力增長。 大摩稱,過去十年國企在內地股市的身影顯著收縮,而近年以市值佔比及數量計有穩定跡象,以A股+H股及美國上市ADR市值合計,國企對中國股市佔比仍有約一半。 該行稱,過去十年,國企主導板塊估值較新興市場及全球同業分別折讓12%及29%,認為國企改革是多年投資主題。此外,基本面難以完全解釋估值折讓。該行以自上而下及自下而上角度篩選出最受惠潛在國企改革股份。 報告稱,與海外同業有最大幅度估值折讓的板塊將最受關注,該行列表相關推薦股如下: 板塊|國企改革主題下最偏好股份 電訊|中移動(00941.HK)、中電信(00728.HK)、聯通(00762.HK) 材料|寶鋼(600019.SH)、中建材(03323.HK)、中鋁(02600.HK) 工業|中國中鐵(00390.HK)、中國建築(601668.SH) 交通|中航信(00696.HK)、中遠海能(01138.HK)、京滬高鐵(601816.SH)、招商輪船(601872.SH) 能源|中石油(00857.HK) 金融|中行(03988.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、工行(01398.HK)、信行(00998.HK) 公用|潤電(00836.HK) 內房|潤地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK) 物管|萬象生活(01209.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)
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