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投資者應該跟隨對衝基金搶購美股嗎?
uSMART盈立智投 05-25 18:59

近期,有不少跡象顯示,對衝基金正在擺脫對美國股市的強烈看空預期,然而,現在可能還不是投資者追逐的時候。

根據法興銀行的數據,本月早些時候,對衝基金淨做空了標普500指數兩個標準差,這是一個極端的讀數。

法興銀行策略師Arthur Van Slooten在5月中旬的Hedge Fund Watch報告中寫道:“雖然我們對標普500指數持謹慎態度,但我們對目前的極端謹慎程度表示懷疑。目前,標普500指數的淨空頭頭寸達到2009年的水平,表明投資前景急劇惡化。由於頭寸已經非常謹慎,指數的持續上漲可能是風險控制面臨的最大風險。”

高盛對衝基金業務主管Tony Pasquariello本週指出,“對衝基金淨敞口處於底部十分位數,標普500指數期貨的空頭頭寸接近紀錄水平”。

"交易市場的情緒被明顯的負面情緒所籠罩," Pasquariello表示,“我在我們的調查工作中看到了這一點,也從我的客戶討論中聽到。”

然而,高盛大宗經紀部門編制的數據顯示,同時做多和做空股票的對衝基金連續兩週搶購美股,總購買量達到去年10月以來的最高水平。投資者應該擔心錯過跟上對衝基金步伐的機會嗎?

Pasquariello表示,近五年來,標普500指數一直處於最狹窄的六週交投區間。“突然之間,股市再次敲響了4200點的大門。不過,在過去的12個月里,股市已經多次測試這個水平,但每次都失敗了。”

他表示,因此,“我會堅持這一觀點:這是你應該降低介入力度並採取一些獲利了結措施的時候”。

Pasquariello表示,對衝基金正在爭相追逐“右尾部保護”(通常指在市場大幅上漲時買入看漲期權),並且,納斯達克100指數相對強弱指數接近超買區間。“我認爲美國市場將繼續處於拉鋸戰狀態,”他補充道。

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