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《大行報告》大摩調整工程機械股目標價 偏好中聯重科(01157.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)及時代電氣(03898.HK)
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,內地工程機械股上半年於內地市場需求依然疲弱,渠道去庫存和建築活動放緩,主要受累於房地產建設,雖然基建資金正逐步改善,但仍然緊張。該行預期,需求疲弱的情況或延續至今年下半年,但按年跌幅或有所收窄。海外市場仍是內地工程機械股的增長動力,市場份額不斷增加,新市場滲透率亦不斷提高。 此外,該行認為重型卡車及鐵路設備股今年應會從非常低的基數反彈。重型卡車方面,需求復甦帶來的利潤率高於預期。當中濰柴動力(02338.HK)首季經營利潤率按年擴張1.5個百分點,儘管旗下KION的EBIT利潤率按年跌0.6個百分點。該行預期,由於基建及房地產建築活動前景疲弱,第二季的行業重卡銷量或由首季的24.1萬輛降至20萬輛,惟仍意味著按年增長35%,主要由於去年次季基數很低。該行維持對全年80萬輛的銷售預測,認為出口或超過原預期的15萬輛。 鐵路設備股方面,該行認為今年首四個月的鐵路交通和鐵路投資的復甦均超預期,反映車輛利用率提高及鐵路建設加速。該行料2023至2025年的鐵路設備將由谷底水平出現結構性增長,預期將累計交付約580套動車組,相對於2020至2022年的約480套增長約20%,對中國中車(01766.HK)及時代電氣(03898.HK)有利。 該行調整工程機械股目標價(見另表),並偏好中聯重科(01157.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)及時代電氣。
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