《大行報告》中金:內房於五一節後首周銷售較4月略降 關注回調所帶來投資機會
中金發表報告指出,內房於五一節後首周新房與二手房銷售均較4月有所下行,需求端改善趨勢的延續性和重點城市供給端彈性,仍是基本面走勢的研判重點。5月第2周60個樣本城市新房銷售面積和15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積按月在假期形成的低基數上各升36%和80%,但較4月周均水平仍分別下降18%和12%,表現均偏疲弱,該行認為這或與短期積壓釋放需求逐漸釋放完畢有關,但仍須持續關注內地居民購房意願和能力的改善趨勢是否有所變化。
該行認為,龍頭央國企、財務穩健民企受益於供給側改革,在銷售和增儲端相較其他民企的優勢繼續擴大,建議關注近期回調帶來的投資機會,推薦均好型的股份包括中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地((01109.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK);財務穩健的低估值標的包括金茂(00817.HK)、中海宏洋(00081.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)(見另表)。
此外,物管及代建方面,該行持續推薦穩健型標的如保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK),當前其平均交易於18.6倍前向市盈率(剔除華潤萬象為14.4倍),該行認為相比於其長期增長前景而言已具吸引力。代建板塊,中金維持綠城管理控股(09979.HK)為半年維度不動產服務板塊首推股份,看好行業和公司景氣度繼續上升,當前其交易於12.7倍2023年市盈率和6.3%股息收益率。
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