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郭思治:大市持续反复下试250天线之支持
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,大市经过连跌两日后,昨日早市曾略见技术性后抽,但由于买盘薄弱,故整个大市暂仍续处反复不明及欲试底之弱态中,恒指昨早市先高开80点至19,842点,其后曾稍为后抽至19,854点,但由于买盘不继,加上零碎沽压又持续涌现,故整个大市卒在反复中跌至19,567点方渐见喘定,由于买卖两闲,故大市之交投亦续见偏疏,但有一点需再指出,由于恒指已曾跌穿250天线(约在19,701点左近),需慎防一旦沽盘再稍作主动,恒指便会正式跌穿250天线,一旦此防线有失,恒指或会进一步下试本月3日之低位19,538点及4月26日之低位19,520点,单从技术上看,大市如再跌穿上述两个据点,其时较关键之防守据点将退守至3月20日之低位18,829点,此亦为今年暂时之低位。 5月大市之走势仍持续处反复不明之中,惟直到执笔一刻止计,本月大市之形态仍暂属先低而后高,恒指暂是由3日之低位19,538点升至8日之高位20,321点,即月内之波幅暂为783点,首先,一个月之高低位是不该同时出现于4个交易日之内,加上783点之波幅亦该不能满足月内之所需,故在本月余下之交易日,理论上该有更大之波幅点出现,即恒指如不能上破8日之20,321点,剩下之可能该会跌穿3日之低位19,538点。 面对持续反复偏软之市势,投资者最好是暂抱观望,尽量保留实力,静待另一次低吸良机,股份中,暂仍以汇控(00005.HK)及中移动(00941.HK)之表现较强,汇控股价如能升越60.85元,目标上望65元,至于中移动,似乎暂仍处急升后之消化中,从技术上看,目前较关键之支持该为66.10元,即前小升浪之高位。(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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