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郭思治:大市持續反覆下試250天線之支持
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過連跌兩日後,昨日早市曾略見技術性後抽,但由於買盤薄弱,故整個大市暫仍續處反覆不明及欲試底之弱態中,恆指昨早市先高開80點至19,842點,其後曾稍為後抽至19,854點,但由於買盤不繼,加上零碎沽壓又持續湧現,故整個大市卒在反覆中跌至19,567點方漸見喘定,由於買賣兩閑,故大市之交投亦續見偏疏,但有一點需再指出,由於恆指已曾跌穿250天線(約在19,701點左近),需慎防一旦沽盤再稍作主動,恆指便會正式跌穿250天線,一旦此防線有失,恆指或會進一步下試本月3日之低位19,538點及4月26日之低位19,520點,單從技術上看,大市如再跌穿上述兩個據點,其時較關鍵之防守據點將退守至3月20日之低位18,829點,此亦為今年暫時之低位。 5月大市之走勢仍持續處反覆不明之中,惟直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由3日之低位19,538點升至8日之高位20,321點,即月內之波幅暫為783點,首先,一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於4個交易日之內,加上783點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,即恆指如不能上破8日之20,321點,剩下之可能該會跌穿3日之低位19,538點。 面對持續反覆偏軟之市勢,投資者最好是暫抱觀望,盡量保留實力,靜待另一次低吸良機,股份中,暫仍以匯控(00005.HK)及中移動(00941.HK)之表現較強,匯控股價如能升越60.85元,目標上望65元,至於中移動,似乎暫仍處急升後之消化中,從技術上看,目前較關鍵之支持該為66.10元,即前小升浪之高位。(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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