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《大行報告》交銀國際:旅遊行業長期增長可期 首予攜程-S(09961.HK)及同程旅行(00780.HK)「買入」評級
交銀國際發表報告指,今年五一期間,內地旅遊人次和收入已恢復到2019年的119%和101%,預計今年全年,旅遊市場規模恢復至疫情前2019年的83%,其中內地、出境分別按年增169%和100%,恢復至2019年的96%和40%。全面恢復後從人均出行頻次、佔GDP 比例、出境人口滲透率的角度,對標全球水平,該行認為內地旅遊業長期仍有發展潛力。農村居民出行頻次及消費金額向城鎮居民靠攏,為整體旅遊行業的增長提供支撐。首予攜程-S(09961.HK)及同程旅行(00780.HK)「買入」評級。 該行指,對攜程和同程業績增長持樂觀態度,預計今年攜程和同程收入分別按年增69%和54%,經調整淨利潤增347%和161%,預計今年至後年攜程收入和利潤年複合增長率分別為20%和38%,同程收入和利潤年複合增長率分別為22%和29%。 參照兩家公司的歷史市盈率,該行分別按照25倍和18倍2024年市盈率預測,給予攜程、同程目標價分別為372元和21.3元,並更看好攜程把持中高端客戶貢獻核心利潤+出境業務帶動收入和利潤率提升的增長邏輯,認為攜程業績仍有超預期可能性。
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