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《大行報告》花旗料中資券商股今年盈利增長強勁 首選HTSC及廣發証券
花旗發表研究報告指出,該行覆蓋的七間中資券商股在今年首季的收入按年增長25.1%,稅後純利升40.1%,與2022財年的按年跌20.3%及25.1%有顯著改善;首季股本回報率按年改善2.24個百分點至7.81%;核心槓桿率增加4.43倍,相對於去年第四季為4.27倍。當中,東方證券(03958.HK)的純利按年增長5.3倍,表現最強。至於中信証券(06030.HK)由於高基數關係,純利升4%,表現最弱。 該行認為,中資券商股首季季績表現主要受惠自營交易所推動,而大部分其他業務仍疲弱,因此該行對其今明兩年的盈利預測作出調整,料2023至2025財年的盈利增長率達11%至21%,並對目標價作出微調(見另表)。 此外,花旗預期,在2021年高基數後,相信在新股註冊制改革推出及政策支持A股復甦的情況下,中資券商股今年將實現強勁的盈利增長,股本回報率有所改善。該行首選HTSC(06886.HK)及廣發証券(01776.HK)。
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