鷹派美聯儲將抑制美股漲勢
華爾街知名空頭、摩根士丹利策略師Michael Wilson表示,那些抱着美聯儲將在今年下半年降息的希望的投資者本週晚些時候可能會失望。市場目前預計美聯儲將在美東時間本週三加息25個基點,這將是自去年3月以來連續第十次加息。
Michael Wilson表示:“如果本週的政策會議傳達的信息更爲鷹派,可能會給股市帶來短期的負面影響。”他表示,如果美聯儲主席鮑威爾的言論屬實,債市對美聯儲降息的預期可能會被重新定價,使其更符合摩根士丹利經濟學家的觀點。他表示:“這最終可能對股市構成負面意外,特別是考慮到我們在政策會議前看到的價格壓力上漲、以及這次會議是近年來被談論最少的會議之一。”

即使是在銀行業動盪和經濟衰退擔憂的情況下,美股基準標普500指數在過去兩個月仍攀升,因爲投資者對好於預期的企業收益感到欣慰,並預計任何經濟放緩都將是溫和的。不過,Michael Wilson指出,對今年下半年和整個2024年實現利潤復甦的希望有些過頭了。
高盛首席美股策略師David Kostin表示,儘管本週可能標誌着美聯儲加息活動的結束,這在歷史上對股市是有利的,但本輪加息週期的結束可能與歷史模式不同。他表示:“估值上升通常會在加息週期結束時推動股市上漲,但標普500指數的市盈率已經遠高於任何週期結束時的市盈率,除了2000年結束的那次(在這之後儘管美聯儲暫停加息,標普500指數仍下跌)。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.