匯控(00005.HK):有信心今年起RoTE至少12% 料全年淨利息收益最少340億美元
匯控(00005.HK)於業績報告中表示,仍有信心自今年起實現平均有形股本回報率(RoTE)至少達到12%的目標,該目標毋須依賴重大收購及出售的影響亦能達到。
根據目前市場對環球央行息率的共識,匯控的全年指引對淨利息收益的預期維持不變。經計及實施IFRS 17「保單」產生的大約20億美元減額後,預期今年淨利息收益將達到最少340億美元。儘管利率前景仍然正面,但預期隨著利率上升,更多資金轉移至定期存款的壓力將會持續。
匯控繼續採用平均貸款額30至40個基點的幅度規劃中長期預期信貸損失提撥。儘管第一季的預期信貸損失提撥相對溫和,但鑑於現時宏觀經濟的不確定性,維持去年全年業績的指引,即今年的提撥相當於平均貸款總額約40個基點,並將繼續監察內地商用物業行業的相關風險。
匯控預計,收購英國矽谷銀行及在全球各地的相關投資,會令集團營業支出增加約1%,這並不包括於今年將成本增長保持在約3%的目標,亦不包括貨幣換算差額的影響、須予注意項目和按固定匯率重新換算惡性通脹經濟體去年業績的影響。而去年全年業績中宣布最高達3億美元的遣散費,將集中於今年第二季產生,隨之而來的效益預期將於今年底至明年顯現。
匯控目前的意向是將中期普通股權一級比率維持在14%至14.5%的目標範圍,今明兩年的派息比率為50%。集團已宣布派發第一次股息每股0.1美元,並擬於2023年股東周年大會後展開最多達20億美元的股份回購,唯須待相關決議案獲批准後方可作實。儘管預期合約條款為五個月,但意向是於三個月內完成股份回購。倘若資本處於適合水平,集團或會於今年及往後進一步回購股份。該行資本分派未有考慮撥回法國零售銀行業務的減值及收購英國矽谷銀行的暫計增益。
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