《大行報告》中金:內地公募基金首季關注高分紅國企 重倉騰訊及中移動等股份
中金近日發表內地公募基金今年於港股投資策略報告,2,949隻公募基金持有港股市值4,065億人民幣,與去年第四季基本持平。考慮到第一季度港股寬幅震蕩,恆指與恆生科技分別小幅上漲3.1%與4.2%,期間仍有少量基金新發,這表明公募基金整體可能有小幅減倉或者獲利回吐行為。目前港股持倉佔股票總持倉的18.8%,較去年第四季的19.2%小幅下降0.4個百分點。
其中港股主動偏股型基金持倉為3,018億人民幣,佔比從去年第四季的17.9%下降至17.3%。此外,公募持股佔南向整體2.1萬億人民幣持倉比例降低1.2個百分點至19.4%。
個股層面,內地公募繼續重倉騰訊(00700.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)、快手-W(01024.HK)、與中移動(00941.HK)等龍頭公司,青島啤酒(00168.HK)與華潤啤酒(00291.HK)一季度取代了比亞迪(01211.HK)與中國海外(00688.HK)進入了前十大重倉股行列。相比去年四季度,騰訊與具有高分紅屬性的中海油與中國移動持倉市值增幅位居前三,這體現了在當前的宏微觀環境下,疊加國企改革與中特估的雙重概念,高分紅央國企的投資價值被市場所關注與認可。
中金指,短期市場或缺乏明顯趨勢,指4月中旬以來,港股市場近期整體趨弱,呈現窄幅震蕩盤整格局。這一走勢體現了當前市場情緒的膠著與拉鋸。雖然近期多項經濟數據好於預期,但對目前市場而言,更重要的並非「過去」數據多麼強勁,而是「未來」的後勁,相反過強的數據反而會使得部分投資者擔心後續進一步政策出台的可能性下降。這一背景下,想要打開市場進一步上行空間可能需要更多內生增長動能的釋放,例如收入預期的改善和更多政策支持的出台。該行建議密切關注即將舉行的一季度中央政治局會議和美聯儲議息會議的政策信號。
中期看,中金對於市場前景並不悲觀,並認為市場仍然不缺乏結構性機會。配置上,繼續建議投資者做 「啞鈴」配置,一頭為紅利(分紅現金流)、一頭為科技互聯網(成長現金流),這一策略不僅有助於平滑組合波動,也能夠提供超額收益。
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