惠譽:內地汽車需求回暖 仍存價格戰風險
評級機構惠譽預期,今年第二季內地乘用車市場將在去年同期疫情封控導致的低基數基礎上大幅反彈,不過銷量能否顯著回升並突破2021年的水平將有賴於政企合力穩定車市價格預期的舉措。
惠譽指,受惠地方政府的消費者購車優惠措施、車企促銷以及上海車展引發的高度關注,4月至今零售銷量按年和按月均顯著回升。惠譽認為,為穩定消費者價格預期,傳統品牌及其經銷商或以更巧妙的方式提供折扣。另一方面,視乎監管部門決定何時執行國六b排放標準,舊排放標準車型清庫存的緊迫性可能得到緩解。
不過,惠譽指,車市進一步降價風險猶存,因為電池材料價格大幅下降可能下半年賦予新能源車企更大的定價靈活性。由於盈利能力較弱,大部分獨立營運的中國新能源車企並無意願進一步降價,但利潤率穩健的龍頭企業及股東資金雄厚的新興品牌可能會選擇優先考慮市場份額,而犧牲短期盈利能力。
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