一文了解券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
阿思達克 04-28 11:15
中國人壽(02628.HK)公布首季業績後今早股價向上，盤中曾高見15.28元一度彈高3.8%，最新報15.04元升近2.1%。美銀證券表示，國壽首季按IFRS 17會計準則下淨利潤錄按年升78%，按IFRS 4準則下淨利潤錄按年升18%，指新業務價值增按年增長近8%。略低於中國平安(02318.HK)，但相關毛利率仍定，指季績符預期，料新業務價值增長趨勢可於今年持續，維持對其「買入」評級，上調目標價由14.6元升至16.5元。
國壽昨日收市後公布今年首季營業收入3,683.85億元人民幣按年升7.2%。淨利潤178.85億人民幣按年升18%；每股盈利0.63元人民幣。期內，實現保費收入3,272.21億元人民幣，增長3.9%；各項新單業務相關指標實現正增長，新單保費達1,176.69億人民幣，增長16.6%；2023年首季度新業務價值增速由負轉正，增長7.7%。
第一季度，國壽實現總投資收益529.32億人民幣，增長18.8%；簡單年化總投資收益率為4.21%，上升33個基點；淨投資收益為455.76億人民幣，簡單年化淨投資收益率為3.62%。
【新業務轉正 憧增長加快】
大和表示，國壽今年首季新業務價值增按年增長近8%，高於市場同業及該行期，對比中國平安壽險升9%、太保(02601.HK)旗下中國太平洋人壽保險升17%、友邦(01299.HK)中國錄雙位數升幅。若按新會計標計(按IFRS 17及9)國壽首季純利按年升76%，若按舊會計標計(IFRS 4)則升18%，主要是投資收益強勁(按年升19%)，展望未來，國壽管理層表示，其目標是在今年剩餘時間實現更高的新業務價值利潤率，並將通過高利潤率的長期健康產品實現這一目標。
瑞信表示，國壽今年首季新業務價值增按年增長7.7%，略優預期，但表現落後於同業，因公司面對較高基數及推售產品組合的紀律，並料其第二季新業務價值增長可望加快，重申「跑贏大市」評級及目標價17.5元。
摩通表示，內險股首季業績顯示，按新會計準則(IFRS-17/9)下的初步財務數據表現積極，與舊會計準則相比，今年首季新會計準則純利平均增長87%，壽險業務的復甦看起來比一個月前預期的要快得多。該行指在國壽分析員電話會議上，管理層沒有確認2023年的股息指引是否基於舊的會計準則。
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本網最新綜合6間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
美銀證券│買入│14.6元->16.5元
大和│買入│21元
瑞信│跑贏大市│17.5元
花旗│買入│17.5元
野村│買入│16.56元
摩根大通│增持│14.8元
券商│觀點
美銀證券│料新業務價值增長趨勢可於今年持續
大和│新業務價值略優預期，今年餘下時間指引良好
瑞信│首季新業務價值增長輕微勝預期，投資收益增長帶動盈利飆升78%
花旗│銷售隊伍穩定，首季新業務價值增長勝預期
野村│首季業績符預期
摩根大通│人壽業務復甦和財務數據轉正
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